Think under uncertainty
Make proportionate decisions when evidence is incomplete and outcomes cannot be guaranteed.
- State confidence instead of pretending certainty
- Use reversible decisions
- Create a decision note
Uncertainty is not ignorance
A decision can be reasonable without being guaranteed. What matters is whether the evidence, uncertainty, consequences and alternatives have been represented honestly.
Write the decision before defending it
State the decision, the evidence for it, evidence against it, confidence level, worst credible downside and what would make you reconsider.
- Is it reversible?
- What is the cost of delay?
- Who bears the downside?
- What information is missing?
- When will it be reviewed?
Choose the smallest reversible step
Where possible, replace a large commitment with a two-week test. Set a maximum cost and a stop condition before beginning.
A decision note with evidence, uncertainty and a review trigger.
Keep personal details private. Print it or store it in a location you control.