Test independent value
Run a small opportunity experiment without reckless investment or pretending demand exists.
- Frame a testable problem
- Set cost and stop limits
- Collect demand evidence
A business idea is not demand
Interest, praise and online attention are weaker evidence than a deposit, purchase, signed trial, referral or repeated use. Test the problem before building a large solution.
Define a bounded experiment
Name a specific person, costly problem, small useful outcome, test channel, maximum spend, time limit and evidence threshold. Do not buy significant stock or create debt for an unproven offer.
- One audience
- One problem
- One outcome
- One channel
- One evidence threshold
- A stop date
Ask for a real commitment
Offer the smallest honest version to five suitable people. Ask for a proportionate commitment: a paid pilot, scheduled trial or introduction. Record refusals and reasons without arguing.
A completed opportunity experiment record.
Keep personal details private. Print it or store it in a location you control.